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Peter Schiff: Why I'm Right and My Critics Are All Wrong

Posted Feb 06, 2009 10:12am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Commodities, Recession
After gaining notoriety and YouTube fame for his prescient calls on the housing bubble and U.S. stocks, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital has recently come under fire.

First blogger Michael Shedlock and then The Wall Street Journal noted how Schiff's investment thesis - centered on shorting the dollar and buying foreign currencies, commodities and related stocks - had run aground in 2008.

A "number of" Euro Pacific Capital clients lost 50% or more in 2008, when the S&P 500 fell 38%, The Journal reported.

Schiff does not deny some clients of his broker/dealer firm (he's not a fund manager or registered investment adviser) suffered big losses last year; they were hurt as the dollar experienced what Schiff calls a "phony" rally that hit commodities and subjected many foreign holdings to a "double whammy."

But in typically direct fashion (and less emotional than his initial response), the author and strategist address the critics head on in the accompanying video, making the following points:

  • It's unfair to tarnish him for one bad year after seven-plus years where his strategy had great success.
  • The "game" is only over if the clock stops on 12/31/08 and clients are forced to sell positions for a loss, which isn't the case. In fact, he says clients are taking advantage of the dollar's temporary strength to continue their "exit strategy" from dollar-based assets and into foreign currencies and stocks at depressed levels.
  • He's not a market timer and is positioning clients for a "major collapse" of the dollar - which he very much still believes will occur, as detailed in part 1 of our interview.

I admire Schiff for sticking to his convictions now and in years past, when he was laughed at by other pundits (literally, in some cases). Some, like Ben Stein, have since apologized but others are surely taking glee in this tarnishing of his reputation.

But a more important issue is he does appear to "make no allowances for being wrong and [has] no exit strategy whatsoever," as Shedlock claims.

It was edited out of the video, but Schiff essentially said "there's no chance I'm wrong" when I asked what the risk is to his scenario of a collapsing dollar, which entered Friday at a four-week high vs. the yen and has been rallying vs. the euro even as (or because) the ECB held
steady on rates at its policy meeting this week.

With the bailout tally rising and Treasury potentially borrowing $3-$4 trillion in the next 18 months alone, it's hard to argue with Schiff's dire view of the dollar's fundamentals. But hubris is the deadliest sin and the biggest risk Schiff faces is the market staying irrational longer than he (and clients) can stay solvent.

181 Comments

Tim
Tim - Friday February 06, 2009 10:25AM EST

nobody is ever always right, always have an exit strategy, always teach others to have exit strategies...pathetic schiff

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 10:27AM EST

so....who didn't lose money in 2008?

Kevin
Kevin - Friday February 06, 2009 10:29AM EST

Peter Schiff has been dead on right on about the economy over the last several years. 95% of his clients made money or broke even in the horrible investment environment. People need to sit up and listen to anything this man says about the future.

sirdon2
sirdon2 - Friday February 06, 2009 10:32AM EST

About time someone speaks up and tells the people the truth. The stocks are surging even with the report of 598K job loss, more layoffs on the horizon, and failing economy. This so called stimulus bill will be the straw the breaks the camels back, welcome to the GREATEST DEPRESSION, our children will have to look forward to working to the age of 90 to pay all this back.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 10:34AM EST

"so....who didn't lose money in 2008?" Every Yahoo poster but you and me it would seem.

Brian
Brian - Friday February 06, 2009 10:35AM EST

so Schiff's clients benefits from collapse in the US Economy...and he's against the bailout...

Jonathan
Jonathan - Friday February 06, 2009 10:38AM EST

Everyone laughed at him since 2005 when he predicted almost everything that has happened so far. Now his critics are laughing again at his predictions. I'm betting on him. People think that the same people that didn't even see this coming and believe in the same ideology that caused this whole thing will get us out of it, right? What a joke.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 10:44AM EST

Like it or not, he's right about the clock not stopping on 12/31/08 - or any other date for that matter. The clock only stops when the close the lid on your casket. What's most assuming and vexing nowadays is how many people are running to the nanny state to save their skins.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 10:44AM EST

I think my father gave me the best advise when it comes to money... 1.Don't buy on credit, if you want something save for it. 2.Create a budget and stick to it 3.Don't loan money to other people ...and from my grandmother I learned.. 1.Waste not, Want not... use and reuse what you do have 2.If you can't afford it, make it yourself, or go without

avid tennis player
avid tennis player - Friday February 06, 2009 10:52AM EST

Another overly glib blowhard moron. Predicting the housing and mortgage issues was obvious. He has shown his real insights and skills by burying his clients in 2008 with his one dimensional recommendations.

Donald
Donald - Friday February 06, 2009 10:53AM EST

Get enough chimps and give them enough time on enough typewriters and one of them will write a Shakespear play. Give enough stock pundits...and one of them will make a correct prediction.

gary
gary - Friday February 06, 2009 10:54AM EST

I agree with Schiff, and there's zero chance he's wrong about the dollar going into the tank. The Fed's original mandate to ensure a stable dollar has morphed into a political arm of the white house. Schiff is right, short the dollar, buy other currencies, and (what I'm doing) buy gold.

Steve
Steve - Friday February 06, 2009 10:55AM EST

Worst job report in decades, and the DOW is up 150 pts Anyone question WHY??? It's the government, buying stock at the window, with your tax money. Did you know that the Jones of DowJones sold his stake two years ago. Good timing, eh.

danny
danny - Friday February 06, 2009 10:57AM EST

I did not lose a dime in 2008. Thank you Glenn Beck

Ray Fun Relax
Ray Fun Relax - Friday February 06, 2009 11:01AM EST

Japanese & Europeans have more Debt & are more "Socialist" than USA. These countries are doing the SAME - government borrowing to stimulate their economies. So why would US $ fall relative to their currencies ?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 11:12AM EST

There is no reason why we should suffer what they escape.... The new jobless claims...when the economy was in a steep recession.

george
george - Friday February 06, 2009 11:12AM EST

A fine mess the neocon mentality has gotten us into. Don't go blind continuing to try and sell us the virtues of neo-con thinking. It nearly bankrupted this country under Reagan and Bush1, and is even closer to doing so now. What a shame. Morons.

fredl
fredl - Friday February 06, 2009 11:14AM EST

dont go back in the future,

Fred
Fred - Friday February 06, 2009 11:20AM EST

"so....who didn't lose money in 2008?" Lots of people who can see reality. I am one of those people. Here's some simple data you can use to make a decision: 1. According to the experts who have so far been right and rely on hard data rather than hope, such as Meredith Whitney and Nouriel Roubini, we have at least a full year before the FUNDAMENTALS improve, and perhaps more. 2. The S&P 500, DJIA and the NASDAQ all have PE ratios of 20 or greater. See http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=mdc_h_usshl for more info. Considering that the historical average PE ratio is 14 and that earnings are accelerating to the downside - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839135 - a PE ratio of under 10 is more appropriate. I'll leave it at these two since they certainy tell enough of the story. --Fred Voetsch http://www.acclaiminvesting.com

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday February 06, 2009 11:21AM EST

"Japanese & Europeans have more Debt & are more "Socialist" than USA." ..... Not correct. Americas internal government debt debt is 50 trillion dollars. Thats over half a million dollars per house hold. If you include federal pensions, the debt is 100 trillion dollars - yes 100 trillion. External debt is 10 trillion dollars plus. And Americas gross national product is "only" 13 trillion dollars. America is headed for disaster. Sigh with relief if you are old. You lived your life in the "golden Years". I honestly pity the young.

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